Comparing variational and ensemble data assimilation methods fornumerical weather prediction
PublisherUniversity of Surrey
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Data assimilation (DA) methods combine a prior forecast (background state) with thelatest observations of the atmosphere, to estimate the initial conditions for a weatherforecast. Accurate and early forecasts of extreme weather events allow time for actionsto be taken to protect populations from injury and death, and for the preservation ofinfrastructure as far as possible. Climate change is expected to increase the severityfrequency of some extreme weather events over the coming Century. Advances inDA should improve the forecasts of these events.